Post-election analysis (Eastside Chris)
Reply to: shvotz@yahoo.com
Date: 2008-05-07, 10:23AM CDT
Last night's results indicated that Barack Obama will become the eventual nominee for the Democratic Party. I asserted this point earlier, to which I was questioned about it by Elmer. Elmer, I hope last night's results convince you as well that Obama is the heir-apparent to the Democratic nomination. :-D
Hillary will continue to run, but she will not win. Her nomination, then, will become a nagging reminder to Obama that her campaign was able to get a large minority of voters to chose her side, forcing him to select her as his vice presidential candidate (for fear of distancing the support he needs that she has).
This will have two consequences: first, the media will paint a picture of how both Obama and Clinton were at each other's throats during the campaign, but somehow now are able to reconcile. This could be negative for the Democratic Party, since it casts the ticket as "unstable."
Second, the Republicans, instead of having one candidate to chastise for the remainder of the election year, will have both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to critique in their run-up to November. If McCain plays his cards right and picks a Republican VP that is highly respected (say, Chuck Hagel or someone near his stature) the GOP could have the stronger ticket.
He will absolutely not pick Condi Rice as his vp. I don't think she really wants to be in that position, and McCain is trying to distance himself from Bush; appointing Rice as his vp candidate would be a step in the wrong direction towards that end.
In either case, I still believe the election is going to be very close. Anti-Republican hostility in America is still strong, if not stronger, since the 2006 midterms. Americans are still looking for "change," something that both Democratic "candidates" represent more than McCain does. And an Obama-Clinton ticket represents a strong force: "younger" Democrats and established Dems coming together to unite under one ticket.
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